Jet A-1 Fuel Cost Analysis: Pakistan Supply Disruption (March 2026)
Context: PAA NOTAM A0147/26
The Pakistan Airports Authority has advised airlines to carry maximum fuel from abroad and minimize uplift at *OPKR *(Karachi) and *OPLR *(Lahore) due to Jet A-1 supply chain disruptions, effective March 13-31, 2026.
📊 Cost Comparison Summary (Per Liter)
| Supply Option | USD/Liter | PKR/Liter* | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| *Pakistan Domestic *(PSO) | $1.15 | ₨342.32 | Current official price [[1]][[45]] |
| Tankering from Abroad (3-hr flight) | $1.61 | ₨450.32 | Includes 10.5% fuel burn penalty |
| Iran via NLC Truck (est.) | $1.73 | ₨485.25 | 1,200 km road transport + overhead |
| International via Ship (est.) | $1.69 | ₨473.72 | Singapore FOB + sea freight + overhead |
\Exchange rate: ~₨280/USD (estimated March 2026)*
🔍 Detailed Breakdown
Option 1: Aircraft Tankering (Carry Extra Fuel From Abroad)
Mechanism: Airlines uplift additional fuel at foreign airports to reduce refueling in Pakistan.
Cost Drivers:
- Base fuel price at departure airport (e.g., Singapore: ~$1.455/L) [[19]]
- Fuel burn penalty: ~3.5% of excess weight per flight hour [[PPRuNe]]
- Example: For 1,000 kg extra fuel on a 3-hour flight:
- Penalty burn: 105 kg (3.5% × 3 hrs × 1,000 kg)
- Total uplift required: 1,105 kg to deliver 1,000 kg usable
- Effective cost multiplier: 1.10x
Operational Impact:
- Reduces available payload (passengers/cargo)
- May require weight/range trade-offs on marginal sectors
- Most viable for long-haul flights with significant fuel price differentials
Option 2: Iran-Sourced Fuel via NLC Truck
Mechanism: Procure Jet A-1 from Iranian refineries, transport via National Logistics Cell road convoy to Pakistani airports.
Cost Drivers:
- Iran CIF price: ~$0.547/L [[jet-a1-fuel.com]]
- Road transport (Taftan border → Karachi: ~1,200 km): ~$0.96/L estimated
- Logistics overhead (insurance, security, losses): +15%
Critical Constraints: ⚠️ Sanctions Compliance: International carriers risk secondary sanctions for Iran-related transactions
⚠️ Security: Road convoys through Balochistan require armed escort
⚠️ Capacity: NLC truck fleet not sized for aviation fuel volumes at major airports
⚠️ Quality Assurance: Jet A-1 specifications must meet international aviation standards
Option 3: International Sea Freight to Pakistani Ports
Mechanism: Import Jet A-1 via tanker to Port Qasim/Karachi, then pipeline/road to airports.
Cost Drivers:
- Singapore FOB benchmark: ~1.455/L (231.42/bbl) [[19]][[20]]
- Sea freight (Middle East/Singapore → Pakistan): ~$0.016/L
- Port handling, customs, inland transport: +15% overhead
Advantages:
- Compliant with international trade regulations
- Scalable volume capacity
- Established quality control protocols
Limitations:
- 7-14 day lead time for shipments
- Port congestion risks during crisis periods
- Requires PSO/airport infrastructure coordination
🎯 Strategic Recommendations
For Airlines (Short-Term NOTAM Response):
- Prioritize tankering on long-haul sectors where fuel price differentials exceed the 10-15% penalty threshold
- Coordinate with PSO on priority uplift slots for essential domestic/regional flights
- Monitor NOTAM extensions; the March 31 expiry may be prolonged if supply chain issues persist
For Pakistan Authorities (Medium-Term Mitigation):
- Expedite customs clearance for aviation fuel imports to reduce port dwell time
- Coordinate with friendly Gulf suppliers for emergency airlift/sea shipments
- Review fuel pricing mechanism to reduce volatility impact on aviation sector
For Long-Term Resilience:
✓ Diversify supply sources (UAE, Qatar, Central Asia)
✓ Invest in strategic aviation fuel reserves at major airports
✓ Develop pipeline infrastructure from ports to airports
✓ Explore regional fuel-sharing agreements with neighboring states⚠️ Critical Risk Factors
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Iran conflict escalation | Global jet fuel prices could exceed $250/bbl [[17]] | Hedge fuel purchases; maintain flexible routing |
| PKR depreciation | Import costs rise in local currency terms | USD-denominated fuel contracts; forex hedging |
| Sanctions enforcement | Iran-sourced fuel becomes inaccessible to int’l carriers | Strict compliance protocols; legal review |
| Airport storage limits | Tankered fuel may exceed ramp storage capacity | Coordinate uplift schedules with airport ops |
💡 Bottom Line
While the NOTAM’s tankering advisory is operationally feasible, the economic penalty is significant: carrying extra fuel costs airlines ~10-15% more than direct uplift due to burn penalties.
Iran-sourced fuel appears cheaper on paper but carries substantial regulatory, security, and logistical risks that likely outweigh the theoretical savings for international carriers.
Most pragmatic approach: Use tankering selectively on long-haul flights while authorities work to restore domestic supply chains through compliant international imports.
All cost estimates are illustrative based on March 2026 market data and subject to rapid change given ongoing geopolitical volatility. [[10]][[17]][[54]]
📌 For precise flight-specific calculations, consult your airline’s flight planning system, which incorporates real-time fuel prices, aircraft performance data, and route-specific penalty factors.