Based on the latest market data and analysis, China’s solar module prices are experiencing a complex interplay of short-term volatility and sustained downward pressure due to oversupply. Here’s a detailed analysis of current trends and drivers:
📈 Recent Price Movements & Near-Term Outlook
- Q2 2025 Price Surge (March-May 2025)
- Prices rose due to China’s installation rush before the June 1 policy shift ending fixed feed-in tariffs. TOPCon modules (≥600W) increased to $0.090/W in April (up 1.12% monthly) .
- Average spot prices reached CNY 0.73/W ($0.10/W) for premium modules, with distributors stockpiling inventory .
- Drivers: Policy deadlines (“430” and “531”), rising wafer/cell costs, and distributed solar demand .
- Current Stabilization (June 2025)
- As of early June, TOPCon modules stabilized at $0.083/W FOB China, with PERC modules at $0.083/W .
- Prices for 450W-class TOPCon modules held at $0.092/W .
📉 Mid-to-Long-Term Bearish Pressures
- Oversupply Dominance
- Manufacturing capacity continues to outstrip demand despite China’s regulatory efforts (e.g., voluntary production limits). CEA projects low prices throughout 2025 due to “persistent overcapacity” .
- Inventory levels remain elevated, with a top-5 manufacturer confirming “oversupply” as a structural issue .
- Policy-Driven Demand Drop Post-June
- TrendForce predicts “intense competition” in Q3 2025, pulling module prices down to CNY 0.70/W ($0.096/W) or lower .
- Forward contracts for Q4 2025 are already priced lower at $0.082/W .
- 2026 Price Declines
- Q1 2026 forward prices assessed at $0.081/W, dropping to $0.080/W in Q2 .
🌍 Regional & Segment Variations
| Market | Module Type | Price Trend (June 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| China Export | TOPCon (≥600W) | $0.083–0.087/W (FOB) |
| Europe | TOPCon (≥600W) | €0.102/W (DDP), +0.99% monthly |
| U.S. | TOPCon (≥600W) | $0.258/W (DDP), +0.78% monthly |
| Premium Seg. | High-efficiency (>22.5%) | €0.13/W, +4% since Jan 2025 |
⚠️ Key Market Risks
- Inventory Correction: Post-rush demand collapse could trigger a “sharp price correction” by late Q2 .
- Tariff Impacts: New U.S. tariffs (48% on Laos, 32% on Indonesia) may raise Southeast Asian module costs by $0.05–0.06/W .
- Policy Uncertainty: China’s market-driven pricing may reduce investor returns, dampening future demand .
💡 Conclusion: Stabilization Before Decline
While June 2025 prices show short-term stability, oversupply and falling post-policy demand will drive prices down through 2026. Manufacturers face margin pressure despite temporary Q2 gains, with global tariffs adding complexity. Prices are projected to bottom at $0.078–0.084/W by mid-2026 .
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